As recently highlighted by The Economist, setting goals for consumer acceptance of specific technologies, like the Administration’s goal of 1M electric cars on the road by 2015 in the pursuit of lower carbon emissions, is misguided. Market acceptance is driven first and foremost by consumer preferences, and electric batteries are currently limited in range, performance, and high cost. Recent bankruptcies for electric automakers and battery producers highlight the difficulties electric vehicles are facing in the marketplace; although with strong management and desirable products, Tesla is demonstrating that success is possible.
As a potentially zero emission technology, the Federal government should back investments into fundamental research and development of battery technology, with the aim of reducing weight and cost, while increasing range and longevity, along with deploying widespread charging infrastructure. However these are investments with long time horizons; meanwhile incremental improvements in established technologies can reduce carbon emissions in the immediate to near future. There is already a century’s worth of R&D invested into internal combustion engines, and automakers are successfully building on this knowledge to increase efficiency as federal mileage standards rise. Further efficiency gains can be made with Federal research support into vehicle light weighting and unique engine architectures that can be commercially deployed in the near term. In conjunction with increased engine efficiency, hybridization and low-carbon biofuels will extend the useful life of internal combustion engines, even as emission standards rise.
Radically reducing carbon emissions will require government investment in risky new technologies with the opportunity for high payoffs. However, these investments must be technology neutral and commercially viable. Setting a goal for the sales of a specific technology without regard to consumer acceptance may be misguided, but investing in lower carbon emitting technologies and companies is not.